Why Smart K is Revolutionizing Forecasting
Smart K is an improved method of forecasting that results in more accurate deliveries. By analyzing a customer’s delivery history and creating a more precise annual usage model, Smart K gives you the ability to better forecast future deliveries.
Shoulder Season Issues
While a traditional K Factor forecasting system may work in the winter and summer, it is not very accurate in the unpredictable spring and fall seasons. Because of this, software companies have each come up with their own way to try to improve “shoulder season” forecasting. But after 40 years, no system proved to be a better predictor.
What Makes Smart K Better?
Blue Cow’s Smart K requires no user intervention to run. Each time a new delivery is posted, Smart K re-analyzes historical data to find the best possible forecast model to use going forward. Using real time data, Smart K learns and adapts to create the best, most accurate forecasts available in the heating industry.
Using Smart K results in more accurate deliveries. This translates to larger and more efficient deliveries, which in turn leads to fewer deliveries a lower cost to operate your company.
In the event a delivery is posted that is so far from the expected quantity that Smart K cannot safely calculate a dependable forecast model, the location will be automatically returned to traditional Degree Day system. Because of this, not every customer will qualify for Smart K. For example, a customer who heats with a wood burning stove for part of the year would throw off the system’s prediction algorithms, and will not pass the Smart K safeguards.
Proof That Smart K Works
In order to determine the effectiveness of the Smart K system, we conducted a study with a fuel oil dealer. Statistics show that the industry’s average delivery for a 275-gallon oil tank is just 150 gallons. After using Smart K forecasting for one year, an analysis of the deliveries to 275-gallon tanks determined that the company boosted their average delivery to 169 gallons. That’s an increase of 19 gallons per delivery, which resulted in one less delivery per customer per year. One less delivery per year may not sound like much. But it could add up to needing one less truck on the road, or an additional 30 deliveries per day.